复合材料世界（CompositesWorld）碳纤维12月华盛顿召开大会

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复合材料世界（CompositesWorld）碳纤维研讨会于2011年12月5-7日在美国华盛顿召开，本次研讨会的目的是在碳纤维和复合材料行业，识别和理解在新节能技术的部署和采用中所遇到的障碍，并研发解决这些障碍的途径。会议将重点讨论和评估低成本碳纤维在新兴能源行业的应用。该研讨会从将概述碳纤维工艺设施开始，继而讨论与碳纤维相关的能源应用问题。

会议的范围包括碳纤维生产的各个方面，从母料的选择、母料的加工，碳纤维生产线（即氧化、稳定、炭化、仪器和设备等）、卷绕和包装各个方面。

此外，还包括与碳纤维复合材料相关的各个方面，包括热固性树脂、碳纤维基质胶黏剂、碳纤维复合材料粘结和耐久性、碳纤维复合材料损伤检测、维修和回收。

   在题为“2011年碳纤维全球市场机遇”的会前研讨会上，业内人士介绍了行业的最新预测。据介绍，2011年全球碳纤维的需求量是45800吨（航天航天7000吨; 产业29800吨，包括风能;消费品/体育用品9000吨）。到2020年预计能增长到153680吨，航空航天用量达到19700吨，工业用量达到120690吨（包括非常乐观的风能预测），消费品/体育用品达到153680吨。新的市场进入者也促进了业务的增长，如韩国晓星、沙特基础工业公司、俄罗斯叶拉布加及中国的18家生产商。工业需求增长的百分比将大幅提高，从现在的48％到2015年的56％，2020年的64％，对工业用户来讲，大丝束是更有效率的，其使用量占到至少50%。

      根据美国市场研究公司Lucintel的《全球碳纤维市场增长机遇2011-2016》（Growth Opportunities in the Global Carbon Fiber Market 2011-2016）报告，未来五年全球碳纤维市场预计每年将以12.5%的速度增长，截至到2010年年底，复合材料产品达到了预期的500亿美元，2011年复合材料产品市场预计达到790亿美元。近几十年来，碳纤维广泛应用于商用飞机（约占复合材料结构的50%）、休闲用品（高尔夫球杆、钓鱼竿市场约有50%的渗透率）和工业市场（低渗透但高增长），碳纤维的价格已趋于稳定，技术也已经成熟，碳纤维市场稳步增长。Lucintel预计，相比玻璃纤维增强塑料产品而言，碳纤维增强塑料产品增长比较快。据报道，在过去15年来，玻璃钢市场增长了30％左右，而碳纤维复合材料产品的市场增长了约250％。

该报告比较分析了各种碳纤维的性能、当前和未来的价格，对航空和非航空级碳纤维市场、PAN基和沥青基碳纤维的区域市场开展了分析，报告还预测分析了各市场碳纤维产量和应用量等。

At the recent CompositesWorld Carbon Fiber 2011 conference, held Dec. 5 -7 at the Washington Marriott in Washington, D.C., attendees were keenly interested in current estimates of fiber capacity, market demand and upcoming big applications that might justify more capacity.

In the preconference seminar, entitled “2011 Global Market Opportunities for Carbon Fibers: An Industry Evolving into High-Volume Processing,” presenters Chris Red of Composites Forecasts and Consulting LLC (Gilbert, Ariz., USA), Tony Roberts of AJR Consultants LLC (Lake Elsinore, Calif., USA) and David Service of Bluestar Fibres Co. Ltd. (Grims, U.K., USA) presented the latest in industry forecasts.

According to Red, who discussed the universe of current and potential applications, worldwide carbon fiber demand in 2011 is 45,800 metric tonnes (7,000 aerospace; 29,800 industrial including wind; and 9,000 for consumer goods/sports). That figure grows to 153,680 metric tonnes  2020, with aerospace demand at 19,700 tonnes, industrial at 120,690 (which includes very optimistic predictions for wind energy) and consumer goods/sports at 153,680.

Namplate capacity, according to Roberts, is 102,440 metric tonnes today, and increases to 124,550 metric tonnes in 2020, thanks to growth as well as new entrants in the business, such as Hyosung in South Korea, SABIC in Saudi Arabia, Alabuga Fiber in Russia and at least 18 claimed producers in China. Roberts says the percentage of industrial demand will grow signficantly, from 48 percent today, to 56 percent in 2015, to 64 percent in 2020; at least 50 percent of that usage will be large tow, since large tow is much more efficient for industrial users.

When the demand curve is compared to supply, demand will outstrip current capacity at some point between 2015 and 2017, based on a compound annual growth rate in demand of 14.4 percent. Service pointed out that since 2.2 kg of precursor fiber is needed for every 1 kg of carbon fiber, demand for precursor is also growing, and unfortunately, so is the cost of oil and acrylonitrile feedstock.